Keep a forecast with its date

Choose one measurable question due within three months: a policy decision, product milestone or monthly indicator. Write the exact outcome, deadline, probability and evidence that would change your mind. On the due date, score the event and add one sentence about the miss or hit. Keep the original wording visible.

A handful of entries will not prove that you are calibrated, and outcomes are not always independent or cleanly resolved. The exercise is observational, not an investing system. Its value is protection against hindsight: confidence about a possible future remains attached to a timestamp. Over time, repeated questions can reveal whether “likely” means anything stable in your own language—and whether updates happen when evidence arrives.