short non-fiction · tech & the future
Solar power learned through repetition
A technology once confined by price became ordinary because each generation taught the next.
The cost of solar photovoltaic modules fell dramatically over decades while factories grew, supply chains specialised and manufacturers learned to waste less material. This is often described by an experience curve: historically, each doubling of cumulative production has been associated with a fairly regular percentage decline in unit cost. Deployment and improvement reinforced one another.
That pattern is historical, not a law guaranteeing the next decline. Module prices are only part of a solar project; finance, grids, land, labour and permitting can dominate. Supply chains also carry environmental and labour risks. A plausible future has abundant cheap modules but uneven cheap electricity, depending on whether institutions build the connections and storage around them.
Based on the work of
Gregory F. Nemet
· 2019
Why this bookExplains the policies, firms and cross-border learning hidden behind a celebrated cost curve.
What to keep in view
Past learning rates do not guarantee future costs, and module prices are not total system costs.